What is Estimated Resident Population (ERP) and how is it relevant to Placemaker?

Estimated Resident Population (ERP) is the official estimate of Australia's population. It is the measure .id's forecasts use as their historic population base. This article explains what ERP counts, who is included, and how the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) prepares it.

Key concepts

What ERP measures

ERP links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence is the address at which a person considers themselves to currently live. ERP includes all people who usually live in Australia, regardless of nationality, citizenship or legal status. The only exceptions are foreign diplomatic personnel and their families.

How and when the ABS prepares it

The ABS prepares ERP for Australia and its states and territories quarterly, and releases it around six months after the reference date in its National, state and territory population release. Annual population estimates as at 30 June are then prepared for areas below state level, known as sub-state areas, and released in the ABS Regional Population product.

For the full method, see the ABS Regional population methodology and the National, state and territory population release.

How this applies

ERP is the starting point for .id's forecasts. The National Forecasting Program projects forward from the most recent ERP, so the latest historic ERP year is recorded in each forecast's version number. See What does a National Forecasting Program version number mean? to find the ERP year used in a forecast.

Frequently asked questions

Q: Is ERP the same as the census count?

A: No. The census counts people where they are on census night. ERP adjusts that count to where people usually live, so it is a more complete estimate of the usual resident population.

Q: Who is left out of ERP?

A: Only foreign diplomatic personnel and their families. Everyone else who usually lives in Australia is included, regardless of nationality, citizenship or legal status.

Q: How often is ERP updated?

A: The ABS prepares national and state estimates quarterly, released around six months after the reference date. Estimates for sub-state areas are prepared annually as at 30 June.

Q: Why does the ERP in a forecast lag the current year?

A: ERP is released around six months after its reference date, and sub-state figures are annual. A forecast uses the most recent published ERP, so the latest historic year reflects what the ABS has released, not the current calendar year.

Q: The forecast tables show an ERP date of 2025. What date does this represent?

A: 30 June 2025. Each year shown in a forecast table is the estimated population at 30 June of that year.