How state planning policy and rezonings are reflected in your forecast

State planning policy shapes where and how much housing can be built, so rezonings, transport oriented development precincts, precinct structure plans and similar decisions matter to a population forecast. The short answer to 'is this policy change in our forecast?' is that each forecast uses the most up-to-date planning information available when it is prepared, and a change announced after that lands at the next review. This article explains how policy enters the assumptions and why there can be a lag.

Key concepts

A forecast is the most likely scenario at a point in time

When we prepare a forecast, we use the most up-to-date information available at the time, and the forecast captures the most likely future scenario as at its completion date. A new precinct announced or a rezoning gazetted after that date is not in the published forecast, however significant it is. The release date of your current forecast is the first thing to check when asking whether a policy change is reflected.

How policy enters the assumptions

Planning decisions reach the forecast through the development assumptions. Planning instruments, growth strategies, development approvals and state infrastructure commitments all inform the capacity of areas and the timing and sequencing of development; in Victoria, for example, the Victorian Planning Authority's precinct structure plan work program helps set when growth areas are assumed to start. Draft plans count too: where a rezoning or structure plan is still in draft, we use the draft dwelling yields and mapping when they are the best available information, and update them as the plans firm up.

Why there can be a lag

Forecasts are reviewed region by region on a set cycle rather than re-run each time a policy changes, so there is usually a gap between a policy decision and the first forecast release that reflects it. Larger shifts work the same way: where a state changes its planning system in ways that allow taller or denser development, those settings are incorporated when that state's regions are next reviewed.

What a policy change means for the figures

A policy change creates capacity; it does not by itself create population growth. When a precinct is upzoned, we assess the demand and feasibility for development there from existing activity, such as development applications, construction under way and historic trends, alongside future projects like new transport infrastructure, and the forecast reflects a judgement about how much of the new capacity is taken up and when, within the constraints on total regional growth. Timing is also kept under review: where a planned precinct is not progressing, its assumed start date can be pushed back at the next review.

Where this appears in Population Forecast

The residential development assumptions published with your Population Forecast site show the development expected in each area, which is where you can see how a precinct or rezoning has been treated. If a recent policy change is not reflected, compare its date with your forecast's release date: in most cases the change simply post-dates the forecast, and the review feedback window is the opportunity to make sure it is picked up.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: A new precinct or rezoning was just announced. Is it in our forecast?

A: Check your forecast's release date. If the announcement came after the forecast was prepared, it is not in the published figures and will be considered at the next review. If it was announced well before, the residential development assumptions will show how it has been treated.

Q: The structure plan is still in draft. Will the forecast wait for the final version?

A: No. Where a draft plan is the best available information, we use its draft dwelling yields and mapping, and we update the assumptions as the plan is finalised.

Q: Our area was upzoned but the forecast barely changed. Why?

A: Zoning creates capacity, not demand. The forecast reflects how much of that capacity is realistically taken up within the forecast period, based on development activity, the pace at which such development can be delivered and the constraints on total regional growth. Not all of a precinct's mapped capacity is assumed to be used.

Q: How do we make sure a policy change is picked up at the next review?

A: Send the planning documents to your .id contact, ideally during your area's development site feedback window. Structure plans, rezoning decisions and sequencing documents are exactly the material the review draws on.