What are Residential Development Forecasts?

Residential Development Forecasts (RDF) are .id's small-area projections of future dwelling growth. They model where and when new dwellings are likely to be built, and translate that into forecast population change at a local level. The RDF is the housing supply layer that grounds the National Forecasting Program in physical development activity.

Key Concepts

Dwellings as the driver of population growth

Residential Development Forecasts start with dwelling projections: estimates of how many new dwellings will be built in an area and when. These projections are then converted into population forecasts by applying household size and occupancy assumptions.

This approach links population growth directly to the physical development pipeline, making forecasts more responsive to local planning conditions than purely trend-based models.

How Residential Development Forecasts are produced

The RDF is built through a three-step process:

Identify sites

Residential development sites with 10 or more dwellings are identified through research across a wide range of sources, including planning scheme information, council development applications, structure plans, and major property databases. Sites are identified nationally, with more detailed research applied in capital city regions where development activity is higher.

Classify sites

Each site is assigned a status that reflects its current stage of development, from complete through to speculative or unzoned. This classification determines how and when the site is included in the forecast.

Allocate timing and sequencing

Each site is assigned a timing and sequencing within the forecast period, based on top-down demographic demand for the area and historical spatial trends in development patterns. This step translates the development pipeline into annual dwelling forecasts.

Data inputs

The RDF draws on a range of inputs including local and state government identified developments, council development applications, property databases and publications, ABS base data and demographic indicators, and cadastral data.

Forecast period

RDF data in Placemaker covers the same forecast series as the National Forecasting Program: annually from 2021 to 2046.

What this doesn't show

The RDF captures sites with 10 or more dwellings. Smaller infill development and individual lot subdivisions are estimated separately and may be less granular in some areas.

How This Applies in Placemaker

In Placemaker, Residential Development Forecasts are the underlying data source for the population and dwelling growth information displayed on the map and in catchment insights. When you view forecast data for an area, you are viewing figures derived from the RDF model.

Forecasts are updated on a rolling basis and published one SA4 at a time. When an update is released, Placemaker is updated automatically. The monthly Product Update email lists which SA4s were updated that month.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How are Residential Development Forecasts different from dwelling forecasts?

A: Residential Development Forecasts consider major developments of 10 or more dwellings. Dwelling forecasts on the other hand consider infil, which can be a considerable sourceof dwelling grwoth in built up areas. Dwelling forecasts are the combination of Resdiential Development forecasts and Infil assumptions.

Q: How often are the forecasts updated?

A: Forecasts are reviewed annually and updated on a rolling basis when significant changes to local conditions occur, such as major land releases, shifts in construction activity, or changes to planning assumptions. Updates are published to Placemaker automatically. See What is the National Forecasting Program? for more detail on the update process.

Q: What if I think a forecast is wrong for my area?

A: Forecasts are modelled estimates based on the available data at the time of the last update. If you have specific local knowledge that suggests a forecast may be inaccurate, contact .id support. See How to contact .id support or provide feedback.

What is the National Forecasting Program?
Understanding population and dwelling forecasts in Placemaker
How to generate insights for a catchment in Placemaker
How to explore population forecast data in Placemaker