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What is the National Forecasting Program?

The National Forecasting Program is .id's dataset of population and dwelling forecasts for communities across Australia, available in Placemaker to support planning and investment decisions.

The National Forecasting Program (NFP) is a dataset developed by .id that provides small-area population and dwelling forecasts for communities across Australia. Forecasts run annually from 2021 to 2046 and are available at ABS standard geographies from SA1 through to state level.

Key Concepts

How the forecasts are calculated

.id's forecasting model works in two directions at once, top-down and bottom-up, to produce forecasts that are both nationally consistent and locally accurate.

The process starts at the national level, where macro drivers of population change are established: overseas migration, interstate migration, and natural increase (births minus deaths). These national totals are then cascaded down through state and territory, regional and small-area levels, ensuring each local forecast sits within a nationally consistent framework.

At the small-area level, forecasts are independently assessed based on each location's role and function and the types of households that move into and out of areas over time, a process informed by the suburb lifecycle model. This means a growing greenfield suburb is forecast differently from an established inner-city area or a regional town.

Forecasts are also ground-truthed against housing supply. Residential development data covering confirmed and proposed development sites across the country is used to determine where new dwellings are being built and when. Population can only grow where there is housing to accommodate it, so the housing pipeline directly informs the small-area population forecast.

The model is monitored continuously and updated on a rolling basis, released one SA4 at a time.

Data sources and reference date

The base data for the National Forecasting Program is the ABS Census, supplemented by ABS data covering births, deaths, migration and other demographic indicators. The current forecast series runs from 2021 (the last Census year) to 2046.

Geographic coverage

Forecasts are available at the following ABS standard geographies: SA1, SA2, SA3, SA4, Local Government Area (LGA), Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GCCSA) and state.

What this doesn't show

The National Forecasting Program provides modelled forecasts, not observed data. Forecasts are based on available evidence and assumptions about future drivers of change. Actual population outcomes may differ from projections.

How This Applies in Placemaker

NFP data is the primary dataset you see in Placemaker. It powers the map layers, the Insights panel charts and tables, and the catchment analysis tools.

Forecasts are published one SA4 at a time on a rolling schedule. When a new forecast is released, Placemaker is updated automatically. You can see the publish date for each forecast in the source attribution within the application.

See Understanding population and dwelling forecasts in Placemaker for an overview of all data available in Placemaker.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How is this different from ABS population projections?

A: ABS projections are scenario-based and produced at state and territory level. .id's NFP forecasts are independently developed, small-area forecasts based on demographic drivers and detailed housing research. They are designed to be used at the SA1 level and aggregated to fit custom geographies such as catchments.

Q: How do I know which forecasts have been updated recently?

A: Each forecast shows its publish date in the source attribution and tooltips within Placemaker. The monthly Product Update email also lists which SA4s were updated that month.

Q: How accurate are the forecasts?

A: Forecasts are modelled projections, not guarantees. .id continuously monitors forecast performance against observed data and updates the model when significant events occur, such as changes in government planning policy or major shifts in migration. The goal is to provide the most evidence-based view of how communities will change, not a single certain outcome.

Q: Can I see what assumptions underpin a specific forecast?

A: Regional forecast analysis, including key findings and assumptions for each SA4, is published on the .id website alongside each forecast release. Contact your .id account manager for access.

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