What is the National Forecasting Program?

The National Forecasting Program (NFP) is .id's forecast of how Australia's population and dwellings will change over time. It produces forecasts from the national level down to small areas, so you can see not just how the country is changing, but how individual communities are expected to grow. Forecasts run annually from 2021, the last Census year, to 2046, giving a 25-year planning horizon.

Key concepts

What the program produces

The National Forecasting Program forecasts both population and dwellings. Population forecasts show how many people are expected to live in an area in future years, including breakdowns by sex and single-year-of-age over a 25-year horizon. Dwelling forecasts show how the housing stock in an area is expected to change. Together these help you understand where and when growth is likely to happen.

How the forecast is built

The program forecasts from the national level down to micro geography. It does this in three tiers, combining a top-down approach with a bottom-up approach.

The top-down forecast cascades population down through larger geographies. It starts with a forecast of the national population and every state and territory, then forecasts each state and territory down to Statistical Area Level 4 across the country. These two tiers cascade the Estimated Resident Population down from the national level.

The bottom-up forecast is the third tier. It forecasts from Statistical Area Level 4 down to a micro geography, usually Statistical Area Level 1 or smaller in growth areas. At this tier the program maps dwelling supply and assesses dwelling demand, building the small-area forecast from the ground up. Each location is assessed on its role and function and the types of households moving in and out over time, informed by the suburb lifecycle model. A growing greenfield suburb is forecast differently from an established inner-city area or a regional town. Residential Development Forecasts feed this tier by identifying which developments are expected to add new dwellings and when, which is how dwelling supply is mapped. See What are Residential Development Forecasts?.

The data it draws on

The forecasts are anchored on the latest ABS data inputs. The Census provides the base data, then the program draws on the latest evidence from a range of sources including the ABS, such as Estimated Resident Population, births, deaths, migration figures and detailed research into housing development. The Estimated Resident Population (ERP), the official Australian Bureau of Statistics measure of how many people usually live in an area, provides the most recent historic population figures, sourced from the ABS Regional Population release.

The program uses a cohort-component model. It calculates the number of people in the start year, adds births, subtracts deaths, then adds net migration (both internal and international) to reach a final-year population figure. It also assesses housing availability to manage household sizes and non-private dwellings, so everything adds up to a controlled total.

Geographic coverage and access

The forecasts cover all of Australia. They can be provided at Small Area, all ABS Statistical Areas (SA1 to SA4) and are also available for Local Government Areas, Suburbs, Greater Capital City Statistical Areas and State. The geographies you can access depend on your organisation's data entitlement.

What this doesn't show

The National Forecasting Program provides modelled forecasts, not observed data. Forecasts are based on available evidence and assumptions about future drivers of change. Actual population outcomes may differ.

How this applies

The National Forecasting Program is the engine behind the population and dwelling forecasts you see in .id's products. When you view forecast growth for an area or build a catchment, those numbers come from the program.

Each forecast release is identified by a version number, which records the input data and how many times each tier has been updated. To understand how to read it, see What does a National Forecasting Program version number mean?

How updates are released

The national to state forecast is updated after each federal budget, then cascaded down to the state to Statistical Area Level 4 forecasts. The bottom-up forecasts are updated one Statistical Area Level 4 at a time, based on how development and growth are occurring. This means forecast updates are delivered across Australia continuously, focused on the areas where they are needed most. A dedicated team of forecasters reviews and assesses growth and change across Australia.

Frequently asked questions

Q: What area sizes does the forecast cover?

A: The forecast runs from the national level down to small area geography, usually Statistical Area Level 1 or smaller where available. This means you can look at the whole country, a state, a region or a small local area.

Q: How far into the future does the forecast go?

A: The population forecast covers a 25-year horizon from the last Census, with breakdowns by sex and single-year-of-age.

Q: What is the difference between the top-down and bottom-up parts?

A: The top-down part cascades population from the national level down to Statistical Area Level 4. The bottom-up part builds the small-area forecast from Statistical Area Level 4 down to micro geography by mapping dwelling supply and assessing dwelling demand, drawing on Residential Development Forecasts.

Q: Where do the forecast's base numbers come from?

A: The Census provides the base data, and the ABS Estimated Resident Population provides the most recent historic population figures. The forecast then projects forward from this base.

Q: How do I know which version of the forecast I'm looking at?

A: Each release carries a version number. See What does a National Forecasting Program version number mean? to read it.

Q: How is this different from ABS population projections?

A: ABS projections are scenario-based and produced at state and territory level. .id's forecasts are independently developed small-area forecasts based on demographic drivers and detailed housing research. They're designed to be used at the Statistical Area Level 1 and aggregated to fit custom geographies such as catchments.

Q: How accurate are the forecasts?

A: Forecasts are modelled projections, not guarantees. .id continuously monitors forecast performance against observed data and updates the model when significant events occur, such as changes in government planning policy or major shifts in migration. The goal is the most evidence-based view of how communities will change, not a single certain outcome.

Q: Can I see what assumptions underpin a specific forecast?

A: Regional forecast analysis, including key findings and assumptions for each Statistical Area Level 4, is published on the .id website alongside each forecast release. Contact your .id account manager for access.