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Understanding population and dwelling forecasts in Placemaker

An overview of the population, dwelling and residential development forecasts available in Placemaker, how they are organised, and what sets access.

Planning major infrastructure requires knowing not just how many people a community has today, but where and when growth will occur. Planning on current population data means planning for a community that already exists, not the one your services will need to support.

Placemaker brings together .id's small-area forecasts of population and dwelling growth for Australian communities, alongside a national view of major residential development sites, to help organisations plan for where and when that growth will happen.

Forecasts start at the SA1 level and aggregate up to standard ABS geographies, covering a 25-year horizon from the last Census year.

Key Concepts

National Forecasting Program (NFP)

The National Forecasting Program (NFP) is the primary dataset in Placemaker. It provides small-area population and dwelling forecasts across Australia, alongside a national view of major residential development sites and when new dwellings are expected. Forecasts run 25 years from the last Census year (currently 2021 to 2046).

Forecasts are based on each location's role and function and the types of households that move into and out of areas based on the suburb lifecycle. This means forecasts reflect the realistic trajectory of each community, not a simple projection of past trends.

Data available from the National Forecasting Program includes:

Population

  • Total population

  • Population by age range

  • Population by sex

Dwellings

  • Total dwellings (derived from major residential development sites and infill)

  • Major residential development forecasts

Placemaker includes a national view of major residential development sites — where new dwellings are likely to be built, and when. Dwelling change comes from two areas: major residential development in the form of urban renewal, greenfield estates and apartment buildings, as well as infill which is more common in established suburbs. The availability of new housing feeds directly into population forecasts at the small-area level.

For detail, see What are Residential Development Forecasts?.

For methodology and update cycle, see What is the National Forecasting Program?.

ABS standard geographies

Placemaker uses ABS standard geographic boundaries to display and aggregate forecast data. Forecasts start at SA1 and aggregate up through SA2, SA3 and LGA level. For SA4 and state data, .id applies a top-down forecast methodology where national drivers of change are used to set control totals, which are then cascaded down to these areas before accounting for housing.

Currently, Placemaker displays SA1 aggregate data at all geographic levels. This means state population and dwelling totals may be out of sync with .id's top-down constraint numbers. Contact your .id account manager for more detail.

For detail, see What are standard ABS geographies?.

How This Applies in Placemaker

There are two ways to explore forecasts in Placemaker.

  1. Via the Explore Map — use the Layers pane to turn on forecast data at various geographic levels. You can switch the boundary view between SA1, SA2, SA4 and state, and apply data themes to explore forecast patterns across the map. 

  2. Via the Insights panel for a catchment — after you create a catchment, forecast data is available in the Insights panel. From there, you can filter by year range, view charts and tables showing population and dwelling forecast data, and compare your catchment to a benchmark area. You can also set custom age ranges for population data from the filter options. 

What you see is also shaped by your organisation's data entitlement. See Understanding your data access in Placemaker.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How recent is the data in Placemaker?

A: The National Forecasting Program uses a rolling update schedule. In the application, you can see the publish month for each forecast in the source attribution and tooltips. 

Q: Does Placemaker use ABS Census data?

A: Yes. ABS Census and other ABS data are the starting point for .id's forecasting model. The model also draws on datasets covering trends like births, deaths, migration and fertility rates to project how populations will change over time. Placemaker does not show raw ABS Census data.

Q: How often is the data updated?

A: NFP updates are published one SA4 at a time on a rolling schedule. The monthly Product Update email lists which forecasts were released that month. Each forecast also shows the publish date in the source attribution and tooltips.

Q: Can I access historical population data, not just forecasts?

A: No. Placemaker is focused on forward-looking forecasts. Historical population data is not currently available.

Q: Why isn't there a publish date shown for state-level data?

A: State-level figures are built up from SA1 forecasts. Because each SA4 updates on its own schedule, a state figure at any point in time is made up of forecasts from different update cycles, so no single publish date applies to the whole state. To see the publish date for a specific area, check the source attribution at SA4 level.

Q: Can I upload my own data?

A: Not yet. Custom data upload is planned for a future release.

Q: Can other datasets be included?

A: Yes. The dataset range will expand over time, starting with Census datasets that help describe community composition. To suggest a dataset, contact your .id account manager.

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